Why You Should Care About Taiwan

 Our daily news feeds are dominated by active conflicts—but what about the tensions simmering just below the surface, with global stakes just as high?

One of the most strategically significant, yet underreported flashpoints in the world is the Taiwan Strait—a 180km-wide body of international water separating Taiwan from mainland China. It's here that grey zone activity by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is escalating on a near-daily basis.

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we explore:

  • The CCP’s claim on Taiwan—and why it’s historically weaker than Britain's claim on Ireland,

  • Taiwan’s democratic identity and its people’s overwhelming rejection of CCP rule,

  • The rise of grey zone warfare, military drills, and coercive tactics by China,

  • The impact of U.S. strategic ambiguity and why the U.S. might be pulled into a war with China,

  • Why Europe and the West must care about Taiwan’s future.

My guest is Bill Emmott (X: @bill_emmott) —author of Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict over Taiwan (2024), former editor-in-chief of The Economist, and one of the most respected voices in international affairs. We recorded this episode on the sidelines of the MacGill Summer School in July.

We dive deep into the risks of conflict, the future of U.S.-China relations, and how the world can avoid sleepwalking into a war over Taiwan.


Date of Recording: July 18th, 2025.

 Map shows the locations of China’s military drills around Taiwan. The blue blocks represent war games held in 2022, the yellow and red blocks represent the “Joint Sword 2024” drills. Ref info - see Dive Deeper.


DIVE DEEPER:

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:



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Music:
even darker variation by SamuelFJohanns via Pixabay
Cinematic Piano Ambient Trailer Soundtrack by Open-Music-for-Videos via Pixabay


#Taiwan #China #Geopolitics #IndoPacific #ForeignPolicy #USChinaRelations #SouthChinaSea #TaiwanStrait #PLA #CCP #Podcast #PodcastEpisode #BillEmmott #GreyZoneWarfare #StrategicAmbiguity #TaiwanDefense #TaiwanSovereignty #ChinaThreat #MacGill2025 #TaiwanMatters #StandwithTaiwan #TaiwanInFocus


EU-China Trade Tensions - Interview with Finbarr Bermingham

The European Union’s trade deficit with China has doubled over the past decade, fueling growing frustration in Brussels over what officials describe as a flood of low-cost Chinese products into the EU. 


Beijing’s continued support for Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is also a major sticking point. The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas called China the “key enabler” of Putin’s war and urged Beijing to halt its support to Russia’s military-industrial base. In response, China has indicated that it does not want to see Russia lose the war.

It was not surprising then that a summit in Beijing between top EU and Chinese leaders at the end of July produced few tangible results.

 

Just ahead of the summit, I spoke with Finbarr Bermingham (X:@fbermingham), Europe Correspondent for the South China Morning Post, to explore what’s really driving the tensions in EU–China trade. We discussed the growing trade imbalance and how China’s rare earth export controls and unwavering support for Russia are reshaping the relationship.


Date of Recording: July 18th, 2025.




Picture shows Chinese President Xi Jinping on the left with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the right. Both leaders pictures are in black and white set against the background of their regions flags which are in colour. Listen to Perspectives at www.pwneilo.com
Chinese leader, Xi Jinping (L) and
EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen (R)


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Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:


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    #ChinaEU, #TradeTensions, #GeopoliticsPodcast, #Geopolitics, #RareEarths, #UkraineWar, #EUForeignPolicy, #ChinaRussia, #EUChinaSummit, #IPI, #FSR, #ForeignSubsidiesRegulation, #EU-ChinaNews, #rareearthminerals, #rareearthmineralschina


    Taiwan's Hot Summer - Recalls, Tariffs and Tensions

     It has been a sweltering few months in Taiwan's political scene with partisanship intensifying in domestic politics, increased cross-strait tensions and unfolding US tariffs.

    At the end of June, I was fortunate to meet up with two of Taiwan's leading columnists and political analysts from the central city of Taichung.

    Courtney Donovan Smith (X: @donovan_smith ) is a staff columnist with the Taipei Times whose regular column, Donovan's Deep Dives shares in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan's political scene and geopolitics. He is also the central Taiwan correspondent for ICRT FM Radio. 

    Michael Turton (X: @michaelturton ) is also a contributing columnist for the Taipei Times. His column, Notes from Central Taiwan provides incisive commentary informed by three decades of living in and writing about his adoptive country.

    I met up with Donovan and Michael to talk about the lead up to the Great Recall vote, President Lai's leadership, party dynamics, trade pressures and what it all means for Taiwan's future.

    Date of Recording, June 24th, 2025.



    Picture shows Taipei cityscape with the sun shining through an orange sky as Taipei downtown bakes in the summer heat.


    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:





    #TaiwanPolitics, #CrossStraitTensions, #PresidentLai, #TaiwanPodcast, #USChinaTrade, #USTariffs, #TaiwanRecall, #PartisanPolitics, #EastAsiaPolitics, #TaiwanNews, #TaipeiTimes, #ICRT, #MichaelTurton, #CourtneyDonovanSmith, #NeiloPodcast, #AsiaGeopolitics, Geopolitics 


    Taiwan's Great Recall - July 26th Results

    On July 26th, nearly one-third of Taiwan’s electorate were eligible to vote in the first wave of what’s being called Taiwan's Great Recall (大罷免) — a rarely used mechanism allowing voters to dismiss nationally elected lawmakers midterm. This marks the first time the process has been deployed on such a large scale with 24 lawmakers from the Kuomintang (KMT) or Chinese Nationalist Party on the ballot.

    The vote result is being closely watched as it has the potential to alter the balance of power in Taiwan’s parliament, which has seen months of political deadlock between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government and the opposition KMT and their allies.

    In this episode we dive into the outcome of that vote. We break down the results, highlight the key takeaways, discuss the reactions and review how these results are likely to shape the remaining term of Taiwan’s current administration.


    Date of Recording: July 26th, 2025




    The title Taiwan's Great Recall - July 26th Results sits in front of a backdrop of a picture of protesters and campaigners gathered on a street in Taiwan late in the evening as they all pay attention to a speaker on a stage in the distance.




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    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:


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    Other episodes in Taiwan's Great Recall series:


    #Taiwan, #GreatRecall, #KMTRecall, #DPP, #ChinaInfluence, #Taiwanelection, #RecallVote2025, #TaiwanDemocracy, #PoliticalPodcast, #Geopolitics, #ProDemocracy, #DemocracyInAsia, #TaiwanVotes, #CivicEngagement, #GreatRecall2025, #ProtectDemocracy, #大罷免

    Taiwan's Great Recall - Ep4 - Interview with Wang Hung-wei Recall Group

    Welcome to the fourth installment in our series on Taiwan’s Great Recall in which we aim to bring you perspectives from all sides of the debate at this important juncture in Taiwan’s democratic journey. 


    As we explained in previous episodes, this unprecedented KMT 中國國民黨 recall stems from a public backlash against months of legislative gridlock, budgetary obstruction, and interference with Taiwan’s highest court—including accusations of collusion with the Chinese Communist Party.  


    While the recall effort is mostly organized by civil society organizations, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 民主進步黨 has recently begun to engage more visibly as the first voting day approaches. Taiwan’s President and DPP leader Lai Ching-te 賴清德 has also been conducting a series of 10 speeches at various civic centers around Taiwan which media reports indicate is a likely effort to boost DPP turnout in the voting.


    Clearly, if enough KMT lawmakers are unseated and the DPP can reclaim their seats in the follow-on election, it would dramatically shift the balance of power in Taiwan’s parliament.


    One of the KMT candidates on the recall ballot for July 26th is Wang Hung-wei 王鴻薇.  She is the deputy secretary general of the KMT legislative caucus and was last elected to the single seater District 3 in Taipei in 2024 with over 52% of the vote. Prior to becoming a national politician she was a Taipei City councillor and before that worked in Journalism.


    While Wang Hung-wei is no stranger to controversy, people we spoke to say they are most concerned about her close ties to China. They cite her visit to Beijing in 2024 with KMT caucus whip Fu Kun-Chi 傅崐萁 and their meeting with top CCP politburo official Wang Huning 王滬寧 - a meeting for which they were not able to obtain any readout. 

    The reason many constituents worry about such meetings is because Wang Huning is credited with being the CCP’s  leading ideologist since the 1980s and is also the leader of the organization tasked with what the CCP call the  “peaceful reunification of Taiwan". 


    At the end of June, I went along to a neighborhood gathering at a small cafe in the Songshan district of Taipei. It was organized by the Wang Hung-wei recall group (Insta @wanghongwei2025gg). 


    I was interested to find out more about the group, 

    • hear about the concerns that were causing them to recall Wang Hong Wei and 

    • get their reactions to the questions and accusations from the anti-recall camp, and lots more!


     Date of Recording: June 27th, 2025.



    KMT Lawmaker Wang Hung-wei gives a speech with her fist held high in the air while being flanked by two KMT supporters. Listen to our podcast at www.pwneilo.com or by searching for Perspectives with Neilo wherever you get your podcasts.
    KMT lawmaker Wang Hung-wei 王鴻薇 who is up for recall vote on July 26th gives a speech during an anti-recall rally.


    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

    • 2025 Taiwanese recall votes - wiki


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    Taiwan's Great Recall - Ep3 - Interview with Chance Hsu, KMT

    Welcome to the third installment in our series on Taiwan's Great Recall (大罷免) in which we aim to bring you perspectives from all sides of the debate at this important moment in Taiwan's democratic journey.

    As the days count down to July 26th, campaigning by both the pro and anti recall groups in Taiwan is gaining momentum. These recall campaigns are a result of a power struggle between different branches of Taiwan's government - the Legislative Yuan which is controlled by the Chinese Nationalist Party or KMT (中國國民黨) with their smaller ally, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and, the Executive Yuan which is controlled by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) (民主進步黨).

    In the last election back in January of 2024, the KMT won 52 seats in the Legislative Yuan and combined with the 8 seats of the smaller Taiwan People's Party as well as two independents, they command a clear majority over the DPP who currently hold 51 seats.

    The KMT and the TPP have, according to critics, used this majority to assert and boost legislative power, and have sought to bock the ruling party's agenda, freeze or cut budgets, undermine Taiwan's constitutional order and weaken efforts to bolster defense capabilities against growing Chinese military threats.

    Civil society recall groups also express concerns with KMT lawmakers' frequent visits to China and meetings with senior officials in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) while the parliament was in session. They accuse the KMT of collision with the CCP with some like UMC founder and chip tycoon, Robert Tsao going so far as to say that "Beijing wants to use the KMT to annex Taiwan" and calling the KMT "China's Trojan Horse" - that's according to a report by new outlet Nikkei Asia (see link below).

    In this third episode in our series on Taiwan's Great Recall, we speak with Chance Hsu (須予謙) who is the Assistant Director of International Affairs for the KMT. We sat down with him in Taipei in early July to hear the party's official response to these recalls and understand why the KMT think they are politically motivated. We also wanted to hear the KMT's response to the concerns raised by civic groups, talk about their controversial budget cuts and discuss the party's connections with China.

    Date of Recording: July 1st, 2025.

    Post Interview Update: Taiwan's Central Election Commission announced on July 2nd that recalls for two more KMT lawmakers will take place on August 23rd. This brings the total to 26 KMT lawmakers now facing potential removal.




    KMT Chairman is shown on a stage at Rongxing Garden in Taipei. He is flanked by two party colleagues and behind him is a large slogan urging supporters to vote NO in the upcoming recall.
    KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) addresses the crowd at an anti-recall rally in Rongxing Garden (榮星花園) in Taipei on June 22nd, 2025.



    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:




    #TaiwanPolitics, #TaiwanGreatRecall, #DemocracyInAsia, #KMTvsDPP, #CivicActivism, #Taiwan2025, #PerspectivesWithNeilo, #PwNeiloPodcast, #TaiwanNews, #RecallMovement, #TaiwanCivicGroups, #Geopolitics, #大罷免, #TaiwanRecall, #KMTRecall, #TaiwanDemocracy, #TaiwanLegislativeYuan, #TaiwanPodcast, #July26Recall, #KMTChinaTies

    Taiwan's Great Recall - Ep2 - Interview with Jinan Church Civic Group

    Welcome to the second installment in our series on Taiwan's Great Recall (大罷免) in which we aim to bring you perspectives from all sides of the debate at this important moment in Taiwan's democratic journey.

    As we explained in our first episode, since the last election in January 2024, Taiwan's parliament or Legislative Yuan has been controlled by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) (中國國民黨) and their smaller ally, the Taiwan People's Party who according to opponents have sought to block the ruling party's agenda, freeze or cut budgets, undermine Taiwan's constitutional order and weaken efforts to bolster defense capabilities against growing Chinese military threats.

    The KMT insist that they are seeking to strengthen and protect Taiwan's democracy and say these recalls are politically motivated. They accuse the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) (民主進步黨) of instigating the recall campaign, of mobilizing civic groups and attempting to use recalls to eliminate the opposition.

    On a Friday afternoon in early June, I met up with members of Public Collaborative Tactics (Instagram: @pctbababa), a grassroots pro-recall group based at Jinan Presbyterian Church (濟南教會), just steps away from the Legislative Yuan in Taipei.

    I was really interested to find out how the group came together and what motivates their cause. I also wanted to hear their thoughts on the Chinese Nationalist Party or KMT and if they had particular concerns about the party's behavior. I also asked if they had connections with any political parties and how they were funded. But to begin, the group introduced themselves and then told me how they all came together.

    Date of Recording: June 13th, 2025.




    The picture shows the entrance of Jinan Presbyterian Church in Taipei. Also included in the picture is a banner announcing Taiwan's Great Recall on July 26th (7/26) and a logo of the PCT Group.
    Jinan Presbyterian Church in Zhongzheng District, Taipei



    DIVE DEEPER:

    Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

    • Jinan Presbyterian Church - website
    • Citizen Congress Watch report (December 2024)

    #TaiwanPolitics, #TaiwanGreatRecall, #DemocracyInAsia, #KMTvsDPP, #CivicActivism, #Taiwan2024, #PerspectivesWithNeilo, #PwNeiloPodcast, #TaiwanNews, #RecallMovement, #TaiwanCivicGroups, #JinanChurch, #Geopolitics, #大罷免 #PublicCollaborativeTactics

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