Taiwan Strait Tensions - China's Latest Move Explained

China insists it is a force for peace, stability and development—but do its actions match its rhetoric?

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we examine China's latest grey zone operations around Taiwan, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels began issuing commands to foreign commercial ships operating in waters east of the island. Security analysts warn these seemingly routine maritime patrols may represent something far more significant: a gradual attempt to reshape the status quo in the Taiwan Strait without firing a shot.


We explore why recent maritime boundary negotiations between Japan and the Philippines triggered such a strong response from Beijing, what China's expanding claims over Taiwan's surrounding waters mean under international law and UNCLOS, and why experts believe these developments could have profound implications for regional security and freedom of navigation throughout the Indo-Pacific.

This episode also examines China's rapidly expanding military capabilities, growing security cooperation between countries including Australia, Japan and the Philippines, and how organisations such as AUKUS and the Quad are responding to an increasingly assertive Beijing.


Is China acting as a responsible global power seeking regional stability—or is it using incremental coercion to advance its strategic ambitions?

We separate the headlines from the geopolitics to examine what these developments could mean for Taiwan, the wider Indo-Pacific and the future of international maritime law.


In this episode:
• China's latest Coast Guard operations around Taiwan
• Grey zone warfare explained
• The Taiwan Strait and international maritime law (UNCLOS)
• Japan–Philippines maritime negotiations
• China's military build-up and regional security
• Freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific
• AUKUS, the Quad and the changing balance of power


If you enjoy independent analysis of geopolitics, international relations, foreign influence and global security, be sure to follow Perspectives with Neilo wherever you listen to podcasts and subscribe to our blog here for additional resources and further reading.


Date of Recording: July 1st, 2026



China Coast Guard Ship patrols the waters around Taiwan. Insert (L) Prime Minister of Japan Takaichi held a summit meeting with H.E. Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos, Jr., President of the Republic of the Philippines on May 8th, 2026. Insert (R) China Coast Guard Crewman radios ships in 'PRC Costal Waters'
China Coast Guard Ship patrols the waters around Taiwan.
Insert (L) Prime Minister of Japan Takaichi held a summit meeting with H.E. Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos, Jr., President of the Republic of the Philippines on May 28th, 2026.
Insert (R) China Coast Guard Crewman radios ships in 'PRC Costal Waters'




DIVE DEEPER


Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

  • Statement by British Office Taipei, Bureau Francais De Taipei and Deutsches Institut Taipei via Finbarr Bermingham on X (June 25th, 2026)
  • Japan - Philippines Summit Meeting - Prime Minister's Office of Japan (May 28th, 2026) - Part 1 and Part 2
  • United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea - UNCLOS pdf
  • IN FULL: The Hon.Richard Marles MP Addresses the National Press Club of Australia - YouTube (April 17th, 2026)


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Audio Credits:

Dark Suspense Thriller by Alex Morgan via Pixabay

Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay 


Excerpt from The Hon. Richard Marles MP, Deputy Prime Minister of Australia’s speech at the National Press Club of Australia on "Launch of the 2026 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program" via National Press Club of Australia You Tube Channel (see link above)


The Washington Test - Cheng Li-wun's U.S. Visit

Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) recently visited the United States following her high-profile meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing. During a public discussion at the Asia Society in New York, she faced tough questions about Taiwan's future, cross-strait relations, the 1992 Consensus (九二共識), and whether engagement with Beijing can coexist with Taiwan's democracy and autonomy.

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we examine key moments from Cheng Li-wun's US visit, including her exchanges with Asia Society fellows Danny Russel and Orville Schell, her views on Taiwan-China relations, and the reaction from Washington policymakers.

We also explore:

• Cheng Li-wun's meeting with Xi Jinping
 • The future of the 1992 Consensus
• Taiwan public opinion on cross-strait dialogue
 • US concerns about Taiwan's security and defence policy
 • The legacy of Hong Kong and "One Country, Two Systems"
 • Whether dialogue with Beijing reduces or increases risks for Taiwan

Featuring edited audio excerpts from Cheng Li-wun's June 8 discussion at the Asia Society in New York (see link below).

Date of Recording: June 18th, 2026




KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun addresses a U.S. audience during her June 2026 trip. In the background are a US flag and a Republic of China (Taiwan) flag.
KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun addresses a U.S. audience
during her June 2026 visit.
Photo courtesy of KMT official website



DIVE DEEPER

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:


Surveys referenced



Podcasts you might also like

  • Taiwan's Hot Summer - Recalls, Tariffs and Tensions - Interview with Courtney Donovan Smith and Michael Turton (August 2025).
  • Sovereignty and Stalemate - President Lai's First Year - Interview with William Yang, International Crisis Group (June 2025).



Music Chime: Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay 

A Foggy Tale - Taiwanese Cinema Comes to Ireland

In this episode, we explore A Foggy Tale ( 大濛 ), the acclaimed Taiwanese historical drama directed by Chen Yu-hsun, which recently received its Irish premiere at Dublin’s Savoy Cinema.

Set during Taiwan’s White Terror era in the 1950s, A Foggy Tale follows a young girl searching for the truth surrounding her brother’s execution during a time of martial law and political repression. Through striking cinematography, powerful performances, and an authentic atmosphere, the film captures both the fear and the humanity that endured during one of the most turbulent periods in Taiwanese history.

The screening was hosted by the Dublin School of Mandarin Chinese as part of Taiwan’s new “Europe-Taiwan Cultural Year” initiative, launched by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to share Taiwanese culture and creativity across Europe. With a packed programme of cultural events planned in the months ahead, we also look at what audiences in Ireland can expect next (listen until the end of the episode or see list below).

After attending the Dublin premiere on May 9th, I sat down with Dr. George Hong, a Taiwanese resident of Ireland, to discuss the historical background of the film, the meaning of the White Terror period, the evolution of Taiwanese identity, and why Taiwan’s past continues to resonate so strongly today.

This episode explores Taiwanese cinema, Taiwan history, cultural identity, political memory, and the growing cultural connection between Taiwan and Ireland.

Date of Recording: May 9th, 2026.



A Foggy Tale premiered in Ireland at Dublin's Savoy Cinema on May 9th
Insert photo: Dr. George Hong and Neil O'Sullivan.


DIVE DEEPER

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

A Foggy Tale


Europe-Taiwan Culture Year - Events in Ireland

  • Fragments of Becoming - exhibition by Yuan-Wen Wang at Dance Cork Firkin Crane, opens May 6th and runs to June 27th, 2026.
  • Dragon Boat Festival event, Greystones, June 20th - FB, @twirlassoc
  • Taiwanese Choir Performance, August (more later)
  • A Chip Odyssey ( 造山者 ) - feature length documentary (trailer) screening as part of Culture Night in September.


Other topics



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Audio Credit: excerpt from A Foggy Tale movie trailer 

China's Global Pressure Campaign to Isolate Taiwan

At the end of April, Taiwan’s President, Lai Ching-te ( 賴清德 ) was forced to cancel a diplomatic visit to Eswatini after multiple countries denied overflight access — an unusual and highly coordinated move.

Days later, RightsCon 2026 in Zambia was abruptly cancelled, reportedly due to the planned participation of Taiwanese civil society groups.

What connects these two events?

In this episode, we examine how the Chinese Communist Party exerts pressure on governments and international organizations to marginalize Taiwan. From diplomatic restrictions to event cancellations, we break down the tactics Beijing uses to expand its global influence and limit Taiwan’s visibility on the world stage.

🔎 Topics covered:

  • CCP’s weaponization of aviation safety

  • CCP pressure in Africa

  • Human rights and tech conference censorship

  • What you need to know ahead of the forthcoming Trump - Xi summit

If you’re interested in China–Taiwan relations, global politics, or international pressure campaigns, this episode unpacks some important recent events.

Date of Recording: May 6th, 2026




President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te ( 賴清德 ) and his delegation arrives in Eswatini on May 2nd, 2026 for a state visit.
President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te ( 賴清德 ) and his delegation arrives in Eswatini on May 2nd, 2026 for a state visit.

Photo courtesy of the Office of the President, Republic of China, Taiwan.



DIVE DEEPER

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

President Lai's cancelled trip to Eswatini:



RightsCon 2026 cancellation:


Trump Xi Summit:


Support Taiwan:


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Music Chime: Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay 

The Chinese Ambassador was Wrong - Barry Ward TD Responds

In early March, China’s ambassador to Ireland publicly criticised Irish politicians for engaging with Taiwan — suggesting such actions were not in Ireland’s public interest.

The remarks prompted a sharp response from Barry Ward, Fine Gael TD for Dún Laoghaire who defended the right of elected representatives to engage freely in matters of foreign policy — and to speak openly without external pressure.

But the exchange raises a deeper question:

Is China’s growing influence in Ireland beginning to shape what can — and can’t — be said?

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, I speak with Deputy Ward about:

  • His response to the ambassador’s letter

  • The continued closure of Ireland’s trade office in Taipei

  • Whether China's influence in Ireland is growing

  • The absence of transparency mechanisms such as a foreign interference register

We also explore whether criticism of China is becoming a more sensitive or even avoided topic in Irish public life, and what that might mean for open democratic debate.

As Ireland navigates an increasingly complex relationship with China, this conversation asks whether economic, political, and diplomatic considerations are beginning to influence not just policy — but public discourse itself.

Date of Recording: March 30th, 2026

Deputy Barry Ward (FG) is greeted by Taiwan's President, William Lai during a visit to Taiwan in July 2025. Also present in the photo are Malcolm Byrne (FF) TD and John McGuinness (FF), Leas-Cheann Comhairle of Dáil Éireann
Deputy Barry Ward (FG) is greeted by Taiwan's President, William Lai during a visit to Taiwan in July 2025.
Also present in the photo are Malcolm Byrne TD (FF) and
John McGuinness TD (FF), Leas-Cheann Comhairle of Dáil Éireann.

Photo courtesy of the Office of the President, Republic of China, Taiwan.


DIVE DEEPER

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:



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Surviving Tiananmen Square - Wu'er Kaixi on China and Democracy

In June 1989, after weeks of peaceful student demonstrations, hunger strikes, and calls for political reform, the Chinese government declared martial law and sent troops into Beijing. The violent crackdown that followed in Tiananmen Square remains one of the most consequential and tightly censored events in modern Chinese history.

More than three decades later, we sat down with Wu’er Kaixi (吾爾開希)  — one of the most prominent student leaders of the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests — to reflect on that pivotal moment and its lasting global impact.

We discussed:

  • What it was like to stand at the center of the Tiananmen Square movement

  • The personal cost of resisting the Chinese Communist Party

  • Life in exile after 1989 and his attempts to return to China

  • The "three delusions" - what the world still misunderstands about China and its political system

Wu’er Kaixi (Insta: @wuer.kaixi) offers a rare firsthand perspective on the Tiananmen Square crackdown, the evolution of the Chinese Communist Party, and the broader struggle between authoritarian power and democratic reform.

For listeners seeking historical context on the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, insight into modern China, or an understanding of how that moment continues to shape global politics, this episode provides both personal testimony and political analysis.

Date of Recording: June 23rd, 2025.




The thumbnail shows a photo of Tiananmen Square in 1989, crowded with students protesting for democracy. Flags and banners fly in the breeze. In the foreground a student holding a microphone gives a speech surrounded by media and onlookers.
Pro-democracy students protest in Tiananmen Square, Beijing
in June of 1989 


Dive Deeper

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:

  • 1989 Tiananmen Square Protests and Massacre - wiki

Podcasts you might also like

  • Tiananmen at 35 - our report from the 35th anniversary commemoration of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in Taipei (June 2024).
  • Exile in Ireland - Uyghurs speak out against transnational repression (March 2025).

 

#TiananmenSquare, #Tiananmen1989, #June4,#TiananmenMassacre, #Wuerkaixi , #China, #ChinesePolitics,#CCP,#Democracy,#humanrights, #politicalDissent, #Freedom,#geopolitics, #WorldHistory,#Taiwan, #podcast

Was Taiwan Ever Part of China ?

Was Taiwan ever part of China, or is that claim rooted in a selective reading of history?

In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, I speak with historian and author Dr. Lee Moore (李默) about one of the most contested questions in modern geopolitics. Drawing on his book, China’s Backstory: The History Beijing Doesn’t Want You to Read, Dr. Moore examines the historical relationship between China and Taiwan and challenges many of the assumptions that dominate contemporary political debate.

We explore Taiwan’s complex past, from imperial rule and colonial history to modern identity and public opinion, and discuss how history is often used — and misused — to justify political power. The conversation sheds light on why Taiwan’s status remains such a sensitive issue today, and why understanding the historical record matters more than ever. We also briefly discussed China's economy. 

Listen to the full episode below or by searching for Perspectives with Neilo wherever you get your podcasts.

Date of Recording: February 4th, 2026.




The thumbnail shows an old map of Taiwan on faded paper with fraying edges. It has an insignia that says Formosa Insula. You can listen to this podcast by searching for Perspectives with Neilo wherever you get your podcasts or at www.pwneilo.com



DIVE DEEPER

Additional information on the topics covered in this episode:


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#Taiwan, #China, #TaiwanHistory, #CrossStraitRelations, #GeoPolitics, #PoliticalHistory, #HistoryMatters, #TaiwanIsACountry, #PoliticalPodcast, #IndoPacific, #TaiwanStrait
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